Unpredictable Predictions
Regular news can be slow this time of year, but making predictions for what will happen in the new year provides a ton of material. I find that pretty much the only thing that’s predictable about predictions is that we shouldn’t put too much stock in them. A lot of us in the real estate, mortgage and related industries shake our heads when we hear or read news stories that are misleading or just plain wrong because the reporter doesn’t understand the material and incorrect information can prevent the public from exploring homeownership or making another move that could personally benefit them.
Here’s a great nugget for all of us to have on hand to combat misinformation: A study of 6,500 predictions made by financial, real estate and other experts in various media forms from the internet to print to TV between 1998 and 2012 found that the “forecasts” had an accuracy rate of just 47-percent! The takeaway from this study by Virginia-based CXO Advisory Group is a good one: The pundits have worse odds with their predictions than you would in flipping a coin. So just because you saw, heard or read it on air or online doesn’t make it accurate.
Real estate and mortgage have become staples in the news due to bursting bubbles and that big meltdown. It would be truly unfortunate for anyone to miss an opportunity to buy, sell, move up, downsize or move on because they didn’t have the real scoop of what their actual, specific options are. As industry professionals, we need to make sure we reach out and keep the public informed of what the real story is in our area. Let’s work on that together!
Happy New Year!
~ Charlie
- Published in On the House
Bubbles = Good, Fizzles = Bad
Are you getting ready to ring in the New Year? How are you feeling about the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016? Here’s some good stuff from the U.S. Federal Reserve about how Americans are doing now compared to the peak of that thing called the “Great Recession” in 2009:
• Household net worth is currently $85,700, up from a recession low of $57,000
• Consumer debt has fallen to 9.8% from 13.2%
• Average credit score has risen from 687 to 695
People might not necessarily realize that from what they’re hearing in the news. On the real estate and mortgage side of things, we know that home appreciation is moving but not out of control, rates are still historically favorable and we had a lot of lending changes this year that can make it easier for some folks to qualify such as the return of 3% conventional financing and lower FHA MIP premiums. SO…however you feel like you did in 2015, know there is reason for optimism. Let’s spread the word together and help educate consumers so they can take advantage of this amazing time in history to buy in and really reap the benefits of homeownership. The takeaway?
Americans far from fizzled economically, so break out the bubbly and celebrate the gains of this year and possibilities for next!
Happy 2016! Be safe!
~Charlie
- Published in On the House
Hellooooo….
Anyone out there? This is an interesting time of year. Some people have shut down, others are scrambling to get closings done by year-end. Whether you’re on hiatus or in high gear, this particular stretch on the calendar can leave a lot of us feeling a bit out of sorts, wondering what’s next after the holiday season is finally finished and we’re staring down the barrel the 31 very cold days of January and the clean slate of a new calendar year.
If you’re not one of those amazing, uber-organized people who has your business plan and tasks laid out in detail for the first quarter and knows exactly where you’re going and how you’ll get there, don’t worry. There’s still time to start and initiate the momentum you need. You don’t have to do it all by yourself! If you’re one of our industry colleagues, there’s strength in numbers and accountability relationships. In this peculiar “holiday stall zone,” it’s easy to feel isolated. Let’s talk about what you want to do in 2016!
If you’re a renter or homeowner, your next step is easy. We can put you in touch with real estate and lending professionals who specialize in your area and/or phase of life: First-time buyer, move-up, downsize – whatever!
Bottom line: Phones and email still work this time of year. What’s on your mind?
~Charlie
Charlie Lawson, President & Owner
612-207-2300
clawson@gcstitle.com
- Published in On the House
Figuring Out Family
Home is where the heart is, but do you know the definition of family? Apparently, it’s whatever we think it is – and the government, businesses and marketers are officially recognizing six different family types. The U.S. Census Bureau classifies families as: Traditional, multi-generational, single-parent, same sex, blended, older parent with young children and boomerang (families where adult children have returned home). When it comes to real estate, we need to think about how to help, serve and talk to these groups. At GCS Title, we partner with our Realtor and Loan Officer colleagues to help promote homeownership. These new officially-recognized family units all have different needs – that’s why I reach out to the public, even though title is really more of a like a “wholesale” aspect of a real estate transaction compared to Realtors and lenders being the “retail” parts. At GCS, we’ll answer any questions you have about buying or selling and help connect you with Realtors and Loan Officers who can address your specific needs.
~Charlie Lawson, GCS Title
Phone: 612-207-2300
e-mail: clawson@gcstitle.com
- Published in Real Estate & Mortgage Industry
On the House: Millennial Madness
Millennials…we hear this group mentioned so often, I’m starting to feel like Jan from the Brady Bunch – “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!” But I can’t deny how important they are to the housing market and economy, so I’ll get over myself to share some important news: Using FHA loans (and other low down payment programs) to buy homes is up 23-percent from the first quarter of this year according to RealtyTrac and the interpretation is that more first time home buyers are getting into the market. That’s great because we need them! Millennials have been lukewarm about homeownership for the last few years, so the real estate community really needs to reach out and share the news that FHA made some changes that make payments more affordable. There’s also other low down payment programs – even down payment assistance – so we all need to make sure that we promote all the great options to help people buy homes – Millennials or not. If you’re thinking of buying or selling, I can put you in touch with great real estate and mortgage professionals who specialize in your area and situation. Message me!
Charlie
Charlie Lawson
Owner & President
GCS Title
612-207-2300
clawson@gcstitle.com
Facebook: GCS Title – Global Closing & Title Services
- Published in Real Estate & Mortgage Industry
On the House: Political Maneuvers
I don’t usually run around urging people to write their Congressional representatives, but I do want to let Realtors, Loan Officers and consumers know about something that’s a bit odd so that you can decide for yourselves what you think about it. Back in 2011, Congress enacted guarantee fees (G Fees) that get reflected in the interest rates paid by borrowers who get loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. G Fees were supposed to expire in ten years, but Congress is thinking about extending them as part of – get this – a highway bill. Also interesting is that G Fees are charged on home loans but the money often goes to fund other federal programs like highways. The Association of Mortgage Professionals is opposing the extension of G Fees, with its president saying, “G Fees have essentially become a hidden tax on home buyers that can discourage home ownership and to price many more young and low to moderate income borrowers out of the market, which is especially alarming given that rental costs are also making it difficult for the less affluent to find a place to live.”
I didn’t write it, but I absolutely approve this message! ~Charlie Lawson
Realtors and Loan Officers: What do you think? We’d love to hear your feedback!
- Published in Real Estate & Mortgage Industry
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