Regular news can be slow this time of year, but making predictions for what will happen in the new year provides a ton of material. I find that pretty much the only thing that’s predictable about predictions is that we shouldn’t put too much stock in them. A lot of us in the real estate, mortgage and related industries shake our heads when we hear or read news stories that are misleading or just plain wrong because the reporter doesn’t understand the material and incorrect information can prevent the public from exploring homeownership or making another move that could personally benefit them.
Here’s a great nugget for all of us to have on hand to combat misinformation: A study of 6,500 predictions made by financial, real estate and other experts in various media forms from the internet to print to TV between 1998 and 2012 found that the “forecasts” had an accuracy rate of just 47-percent! The takeaway from this study by Virginia-based CXO Advisory Group is a good one: The pundits have worse odds with their predictions than you would in flipping a coin. So just because you saw, heard or read it on air or online doesn’t make it accurate.
Real estate and mortgage have become staples in the news due to bursting bubbles and that big meltdown. It would be truly unfortunate for anyone to miss an opportunity to buy, sell, move up, downsize or move on because they didn’t have the real scoop of what their actual, specific options are. As industry professionals, we need to make sure we reach out and keep the public informed of what the real story is in our area. Let’s work on that together!
Happy New Year!